COVID19 – Hogan’s Numbers Game

Maryland Passed Peak March 25, 2020

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On March 5, 2020 Governor Larry Hogan declared a State Of Emergency due to an “outbreak of disease”.  Maryland now had its first coronavirus death while there were 177 confirmed cases nationwide.

March 16, Hogan gave a press conference saying things are going to get much worse and ordered the closure of private businesses to help mitigate what he perceived would be an assault on our medical infrastructure.  His tone was that of an alarmist as he said: “… we have never faced anything like this before.”  He added we should expect, “… number of cases [deaths] to dramatically and rapidly rise.”  Continuing in his alarmist tone he went on: “This is going to be much harder … be much worse than almost anyone is currently understanding.”

By mid-March, Maryland hospitals were scrambling to prepare for a catastrophe that has yet to materialize.

I’m suggesting right now, everyone take a deep breath because the data shows we reached our peak on March 25. 

I’ve attached a document from an anonymous source.  The data on it is exactly as used to generate the public data you see on https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/.

We are going to use the data differently than the Governor has.  We aren’t going to use it to create panic; we are going to use it to show you there is no need to panic or fear your life as you know it is over because of a virus.  It might be over because of government overreach and a misunderstanding of one’s Constitutional duties; but, it isn’t over because of a virus from Wuhan, China. 

If March 25 is the day we peaked, it is also the day before we began seeing less and less coronavirus cases in Maryland.  The Governor also knows this.  It’s why he hints to it without actually coming out and telling you. 

You will notice a few spikes on the chart – one most notably on April 7, showing a daily increase of 26%.  I attribute that to a document dump previously unreported.  Even if you don’t attribute it that way, the numbers still continue to decrease with a few bumps along the way.  It’s nothing to panic a population over.    

We have been told since this State Of Emergency started, we need to “flatten the curve” so we don’t overwhelm our medical system.   On March 23, Dr. Barbara Brookmyer, Health Officer of the Frederick County Health Department, explained that “flatten the curve” was an idea that probably came from a 2017 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention pandemic guide.

During an April 7 press conference Governor Hogan explained you want to flatten the curve to prevent virus cases spiking all at once:  “… it would have been overloading the system.”  

If the stated goal is/was to prevent everyone from getting the disease and overwhelming our hospitals and medical infrastructure, but we are almost two weeks past peak, why is Governor Hogan still writing Executive Orders removing Constitutional rights?

If the reason the Governor seized control of private business and forced free born Americans under house arrest for having committed no crime was to protect our failing medical infrastructure and that risk has now passed, why did he just remove more rights – namely, the right of healthy people to participate in commerce without having to cover their faces?

With all due respect, I do not believe the Governor understands his oath of office is to protect and defend the laws of the land, not the feelings of frightened citizens.

During his April 17 press conference he admitted the coronavirus recovery rate is up 22% but then goes on to say the “virus continues to devastate our economies.” 

For the next 15 minutes of the press conference Mr. Hogan didn’t try to calm the public with more information on how we have fewer people getting the virus at the same time that more are recovering from it.  The opposite holds true with his statement: “… case numbers are growing each day and the number of deaths is continuing to increase.”   He did mention:  “We are beginning to see some hopeful and encouraging signs…” but failed to mention what those signs are.

He gave us his “Four Building Blocks” before he could “lift” restrictions:

Expand Testing Capacity

Increase Hospital Surge Capability

Increase Supplies of Personal Protection Equipment

Have a Robust Contact Tracing Operation

All of this seems extremely subjective while declines in the data say we are past the emergency needs of any of his requirements.

About 15 minutes into his press conference the Governor says: “… some people have said that covering their faces infringes on their rights.” He goes on to say:  “… this isn’t just about your rights or protecting yourself; it’s about protecting your neighbors, and uh, the best science that we have shows that people might not know that they’re carriers of the virus and through no fault of their own they could infect other people and spreading this disease infringes on your neighbors rights….”

Under what authority does Governor Hogan have the right to suspend the rights of healthy Marylanders in order to preserve the rights of frightened Marylanders?

2020 COVID-19 Proclamations & Executive Orders

April 17 press conference

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Cindy A. Rose began writing for the Tentacle in 2011 trying to raise awareness over things happening within Frederick County Public Schools. She began keeping a close watch on FCPS when she learned there were not enough air conditioned buses for special needs children during the hot Maryland summers. The Tentacle offered her a place to share her concerns with her community when local newspapers didn’t always. Cindy had the opportunity to buy the Tentacle from creator/owner John W. Ashbury in 2019, so she did. She believed then, as she believes now, our communities, friends and neighbors have important things to say that needs to be shared with those living around them. Large corporate news companies don’t always share in those passions and concerns. The Tentacle is a local news, commentary and community website run by citizens, for citizens. Its success depends on your participation.