Ins and Outs as of January 20, 2017
The funny thing about national elections is that they often don’t end up as envisioned by political pundits. On rare occasions, the outcome rattles the political establish to its core, and the repercussions are felt long afterward.
In the history of live polling, we’ve never seen as wide a delta between what the polling indicated and how voters actually voted. When the polls opened November 8th, every credible national poll of the likely Electoral College outcome suggested that Donald J. Trump had an incredibly narrow path to the nomination. A couple of outliers gave him a point or two lead nationally, but the majority said that Hillary Clinton started the day with a 3-4 point national lead.
Throughout the day, exit polls seemed to confirm the majority view, that while the overall results would be close, Mr. Trump had to sweep the table, where Mrs. Clinton merely had to pick off one or two swing states.
By 11:30 P.M. Election Night, it was apparent that the polls had gotten it very wrong. Instead of Mr. Trump having the narrow path, he kept consistently knocking down swing states. By 1:00 A.M. Wednesday morning, the candidate with the narrow path was Mrs. Clinton, and that narrow path was her “Great Blue Northern Wall.” The fact that Wisconsin, Michigan and Minnesota were either too close, or too early, to call suggested winds of change were blowing.
As if that weren’t enough to chill the air inside the Clinton party at the Jacob Javitts Center, the inability to call Pennsylvania due to a small, but growing, lead with several crucial uncounted precincts raised the tension level.
In the wee hours of the morning, Pennsylvania finally fell to Team Trump. At that point, Donald Trump has accumulated enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. He’d have to wait until Wednesday late morning to receive his public concession, but both Hillary Clinton and President Barack Obama telephoned him shortly after the television networks made his win official.
Now Mr. Trump and his team turn their attention to assuming the office, with hundreds of high-level positions to fill, policy plans to lay out, and priorities to sift through. Wouldn’t you love to have been a fly on the wall when he met with President Obama privately in the Oval Office? Did the president beg to protect some piece(s) of his legacy?
So, in January of 2017, the DC political establishment will undergo a sea change, and all of the insiders will find themselves on the outside. As a sort of mini-score card, here is a list of who/what will be IN and OUT when President-elect Donald J. Trump moves into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.
Trump brand suits
America’s Mayor Rudy Giuliani
Fox News/The Golf Channel
Filet Mignon (Trump steaks)
Rep. Jason Chaffitz (R,, UT)
Sen. Ron Johnson (R, WI)
U.S. Border Patrol
Frank Sinatra music
Market-based health insurance
Local control of education
Restrained foreign policy
Mutually-beneficial international trade deals
Rev. Al Sharpton
Pro basketball players
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D., CA)
Sen. Harry Reid (D., NV)
Caps and gowns
Ben’s Chili Bowl
The Internal Revenue Service
North American Free Trade Agreement/Trans Pacific Partnership
Of course, this is just a quickie preview based on a year’s worth of campaign observation. No one, save the President-elect himself, has the slightest idea what he’ll do after he takes the oath of office.
The only thing we can assume with reasonable surety is that the next four years are going to be a roller coaster, political thrill ride.
Buckle yourselves in, this is going to be a doozy!