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The Tentacle


January 29, 2016

Bold Prediction or Cold Reality?

Joe Charlebois

As Vice-President Elizabeth Warren looks on, he raises his hand and states “I Joseph Robinette Biden, Jr., do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the Office of the President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States, so help me God.”

 

The President smiles at Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts as he is congratulated by his family.

 

This could very well be the scene a year from now. There is a lot looming over the next six months leading up to the conventions. There are many candidates with many issues.

 

For the Democratic Party are former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I., VT) and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley. The Republican Party still has several candidates running, but there are likely only two candidates who seem to have a serious chance heading into the Iowa Caucuses. They would be Mr. Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (TX).

 

Of the top four candidates Mrs. Clinton has the greatest odds of winning a nomination. She also has the greatest odds of being indicted. This is based on information from investigators shared with former Attorney General Michael Mukasey, and former U.S. Attorney Joe DiGenova, as well as the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) induced court ordered release of Secretary Clinton’s official emails to and from the State Department. The fact that Secretary Clinton and her staff have violated several laws several times is not in question, it is whether the Justice Department will seat a grand jury or not. It should.

 

If the Department of Justice does surprise us all by indicting Mrs. Clinton, it is highly unlikely that she will be able to win the party’s nomination. She already has extremely high negatives – 51% view her negatively – and with a dark cloud hanging over her socialist, Senator Sanders would immediately inherit the nomination unless Governor O’Malley makes a tremendous move, or Vice-President Joe Biden steps into the void.

 

Both Senator Sanders and the vice president are the only candidate or potential candidate who enjoy positive favorability ratings based on the most current data. Of the Republican candidates, Sens. Marco Rubio (FL) and Cruz are the two candidates with the most positive favorability differential. They even have higher favorable rates than GOP poll leader Donald Trump.

 

The two candidates that have the highest negatives are each party’s leader. Secretary Clinton has negatives of 51%, while Mr. Trump has 57.8% negatives. If these two survive the primaries and – in Secretary Clinton’s case – legal trouble, the election will be a contest that few would be excited over.

 

If Mrs. Clinton doesn’t survive the legal challenge that awaits her, the push for the vice president to jump into the race may be too much for him to ignore. People genuinely like Joe Biden. Even those who oppose him on issues find him more likable than most of the other candidates on any of the debate stages.

 

It is entirely possible that the vice-president would fare very well against Mr. Trump. It is entirely possible that next January we could be swearing in a President Biden.

 

Favorable/Unfavorable Polling Data

 

Joe Biden 45.7/37.7/+8

Bernie Sanders 38.4/38.2/+0.2

Marco Rubio 35.2/38.0/-2.8

Ted Cruz 34.6/40.0/-5.4

John Kasich 19.7/27.0/-7.3

Hillary Clinton 42.8/51.0/-8.2

Carly Fiorina 26.0/35.0/-9.0

Chris Christie 30.0/43.5/-13.5

Rand Paul 24.7/40.7/-16.0

Donald Trump 34.4/57.8/-23.4

Jeb Bush 29.0/54.0/-25.0

 

(RealClearPolitics 1/28/16)

 



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