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October 30, 2012

The Outcome Ahead of Scheduled Results

Chris Cavey

The presidential election is just 10 days away and the nation is abuzz with the candidates neck-and-neck as they sprint down the homestretch. This means it's time for the quadrennial Cavey prediction!


Mitt Romney – 295; Barack Obama – 243


You have to remember while reading my explanations... I am just a politico with an opinion!


We start with giving each candidate the likely/leaning states which are outside the margins of error; and, basically, the campaigns have them on the back burner. (Maryland is off the stove in a freezer bag awaiting long term storage – but more on that later.) So, President Obama has a starting base vote of 237 and Governor Romney 191.


The best analogy of swing states "turning to a candidate" is a train leaving a tunnel (stole this analogy from a wise friend). Each time a state gets above a +.2% or so it stays in the Romney column – like a train exiting a tunnel. Not true for the president, however, due to the overall national trend.


Of the nine swing states (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin), Florida, North Carolina and Virginia are already out of the tunnel and into the light of Romneyland. That is 57 Electoral votes – for a new Romney total of 248.


The polls over the past week – and especially the past couple of days – have ties or sharp trends for Governor Romney in Colorado and New Hampshire. They are in his column by mid-week. Add 13 more for a Mitt Romney total of 261.


Nevada has shown a small but continually consistent decrease for President Obama in the polls. Add to that in his multi-state tour, the Nevada stop was basically a stop at the bank for campaign funds – I say they know it is in the Romney column. Add 6 more from of the Silver State for a new total of 267.


What are left are Iowa, Ohio and Wisconsin to win; any would produce a Romney victory. Iowa is small and tough. The Hawkeye State went for President Obama four years ago and polling today reflects the same general trend, although Governor Romney is significantly closer than was John McCain four years ago. My prediction – Mr. Obama gains 6 for a new total of 243.


The remaining two states could go either way, however, I think they both will squeak out a Romney victory.


Wisconsin is trending toward Governor Romney as of this writing. I think the deciding factor is the already "on the ground organizational structure," which supported Paul Ryan and Gov. Scott Walker. Add to that Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus is also a “Cheese head." So, you have that "little extra effort" for the chairman to have bragging rights. Mitt Romney is in the win column with 10 more for a total of 277.


Ohio is the prize – the icing on the cake. This will be close and into the wee hours of the mornings. President Obama has an edge in early voting, or so we are told; but with the news of the Libya debacle and the polling trend, the Buckeyes should make Governor Romney very happy with 18 more electoral votes for a grand total of 295!


I am planning on attending both the Inauguration and the Inaugural Ball on January 20, 2013.


Okay...what about Maryland? Our state has 27% Republican registration and 55% Democrat registration; the rest are everything else. As of August 2012, any statewide Republican who does not get at least 27% in a two-way race is not reaching the GOP base voter... Governor Romney will do far better.


In 2008 John McCain lost to Barack Obama in Maryland by what was likely the widest margin in the United States – 62% Obama to 37% McCain. The times have changed and the candidate for the GOP is different. Rather than a 15-point rout, you should look for a 10 to 12 point differential. If Governor Romney loses in Maryland by less than 10%, there will be a lot of worried Democrats.


Please note! If I were not such a realist, I would love to image a Mitt Romney win in Maryland, because I have been elected by my party as an Elector! Nothing would be better than to be summoned to Annapolis in December to cast the "actual" vote for the President of the United States!


Here’s one last item of major importance. Maryland citizens have a historical first when they vote this time. On the ballot are three initiatives which the citizens have petitioned to referendum. Never before have the citizens had the opportunity to exercise their power of veto.


We have shown the Maryland General Assembly that we are not happy with their model of business-as-usual and now it is time for us to follow up on our threat. Regardless of your position on any of the petitioned issues, you should vote Against the referred bills just for the sake of liberty. If all the referred bills lose, you will see a dramatic shift in how Annapolis operates. We citizens will have spoken.


So, there you have it. The Cavey Prediction – We shall see.


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